Informal discussions on international trade attribute much importance to organizational differences. Nevertheless, economic theories of international trade have not been extended to incorporate this important element. This paper integrates theories of internal organization with a model of international trade by adding another dimension — how decisions regarding which ideas or projects to accept...

Based on the recursive preference approach, the dynamic and global properties of the two-country open economy are examined with one good and inputs of labor and capital, with capital being freely traded internationally. First by showing that the world’s consumption increases (resp. decreases) with an increase (resp. decrease) in the world’s capital, the global stability of the economy is obtain...

Samuelson (1947) stated that a regular equilibrium exhibits the transfer paradox if and only if it is unstable. Gale (1974) and many in the early 1980’s debunked this equivalence by adding extra countries, reaching an anti consensus. We reinterpret Samuelson’s result as identifying the threshold, i.e. the minimum level of trade beyond which the transfer paradox appears. This reinterpretation ge...

We study how the sequential formation of free trade areas affects trade flows between member countries. In a three–country, three–good model of comparative advantage if two countries have an FTA, and both sign a similar agreement with the third, trade between the two decreases. However, if only one of them signs an additional FTA, a huband-spoke pattern arises, and trade between the initial mem...

Much trade liberalization involves large and small countries. This paper presents a formal comparison of the economic welfare effects for the small and large country from unilateral free trade by the small country, from a free trade agreement, and from preferential access to the large country’s market. I show that it matters for the welfare effects of these strategies whether the small country ...

The paper examines the economic role of modelling information on the decision problem of an exporting firm under exchange rate risk and hedging. Information is described in terms of market transparency, i.e., a publicly observable signal conveys more information about the random foreign exchange rate. We analyze the interaction between market transparency and the ex ante expected utility of the...

â â â â â â â  this paper proposes a new forecasting model for investigating relationship between the price of crude oil, as an important energy source and gdp of the us, as the largest oil consumer, and the uk, as the oil producer. gmdh neural network and mlff neural network approaches, which are both non-linear models, are employed to forecast gdp responses to the oil price changes. the resul...

We conduct both an approximate Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and an exact Bayesian analysis to incorporate break date uncertainty of the mean growth rate into the trend-cycle decomposition of U.S. real GDP. Our results suggest a structural break in mean growth rate of U.S. real GDP in 1970s. Comparing to the models assuming fixed break date, we find higher uncertainty in the posterior density ...

This paper studies bank loans over the business cycles in Iran to determine the role of Iranian banks in stabilizing credit. By estimating the long-run relations using dynamic OLS and fully modified OLS estimators, the findings show that real bank lending is positively related to real GDP in the long-run providing evidences of the pro-cyclicality of bank lending in Iran. Hence, Iranian banking ...

        This paper proposes a new forecasting model for investigating relationship between the price of crude oil, as an important energy source and GDP of the US, as the largest oil consumer, and the UK, as the oil producer. GMDH neural network and MLFF neural network approaches, which are both non-linear models, are employed to forecast GDP responses to the oil price changes. The resul...