The purpose of this paper is to analyze the risks of synthetic CDO structures and their sensitivity to model parameters. In order to measure these sensitivities, I also introduce the latest techniques in the pricing and risk management of synthetic CDOs. I show how to model the conditional and unconditional default distributions of a typical synthetic deal using a simple mathematical framework....

A general and efficient method for valuing credit derivatives based on multiple entities is developed in an affine framework. This includes interdependence of market and credit risk, joint credit migration and counterparty default risk of multiple firms. As an application we provide closed form expressions for the joint distribution of default times, default correlations, and default swap sprea...

Observation of historical default rates supports the idea that default events (and, more generally, all indicators of credit quality and transition) are correlated. Default correlations are caused by similar economic conditions and, within a sector, by industry-specific reasons. However, incorporating default correlation in any portfolio credit risk analysis is difficult because of the lack of ...

We study the pricing of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) using an extensive new data set for the actively-traded CDX credit index and its tranches. We find that a three-factor portfolio credit model allowing for rm-speci c, industry, and economywide default events explains virtually all of the time-series and crosssectional variation in CDX index tranche prices. These tranches are priced ...

How to forecast next year’s portfolio-wide credit default rate based on last year’s default observations and the current score distribution? A classical approach to this problem consists of fitting a mixture of the conditional score distributions observed last year to the current score distribution. This is a special (simple) case of a finite mixture model where the mixture components are fixed...

Nowadays, one of the most important topics in risk management of banks, financial, and credit institutions is credit risk management. In this research, the researchers used survival analytic methods for credit risk modeling in terms of the conditional distribution function of default time. As a practical task, the authors considered the reward credit portfolio of Tose'e Ta'avon Bank of Guilan P...

The impact of a stress scenario of default events on the loss distribution of a credit portfolio can be assessed by determining the loss distribution conditional on these events. While it is conceptually easy to estimate loss distributions conditional on default events by means of Monte Carlo simulation, it becomes impractical for two or more simultaneous defaults as then the conditioning event...

We investigate default probabilities and default correlations of Merton-type credit portfolio models in stress scenarios where a common risk factor is truncated. For elliptically distributed asset variables, the asymptotic limits of default probabilities and default correlations depend on the max-domain of attraction of the asset variables. In the regularly varying case, we derive an integral r...

To my parents and to Diana Preface Credit derivatives play a major role in financial markets. To price these complex products objectively advanced mathematical models are needed. In this thesis we focus on the modelling and valuation of two portfolio credit derivatives: n th-to-default credit default swaps (CDSs) and collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). The key input parameters of these mode...