in this study, in order to consider the effects of cash flow fluctuations on project profitability, the new risk kind indicators are proposed to assess projects risk. firstly, project cash flow calculates on the basis of cost and revenue data in an lng project. then distribution curves of two variables, oil price and interest rate of foreign loans, are utilized to determine distribution curve o...

It is possible to build useful models for software project risk assessment based on Bayesian networks. A number of such models have been published and used and they provide valuable predictions for decision-makers. However, the accuracy of the published models is limited due to the fact that they are based on crudely discretised numeric nodes. In traditional Bayesian network tools such discreti...

Limiting the focus of risk analysis to quantifiable factors and using a narrow understanding of the scope of a software project are major contributors to significant software failures. A Software Development Impact Statement (SoDIS) process is presented which extends the concept of software risk in three ways; --it moves beyond the limited approach of schedule, budget, and function, --it adds q...

The ability to reliably predict the risk for a software project presents a significant advantage for a development team. It provides an opportunity to address high risk components earlier in the development life cycle, when their impact is minimized. This article proposes a Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) model that captures the evolution of the quality of a software product and provides reliab...

selecting an effective project plan is a significant area in the project management. the present paper introduces a technique to identify the project plan efficient frontier for assessing the alternative project plans and selecting the best plan. the efficient frontier includes two criteria: the project cost and the project time. besides, the paper presents a scheme to incorporate directed acyc...

One certainty in software development is that all projects will have to deal with change. Being able to effectively handle proposed changes is crucial for allowing continued development of a software project to occur. To effectively manage change, developers must assess the risks involved in making the change. To understand the risks, the project manager must determine how the change will affec...

Objective: The aim of this paper is to propose a new approach to assess the aggregated impact of risks on the completion cost of a construction project. Such an aggregated impact includes the main impacts of risks as well as the impacts of interactions caused by dependencies among them. Methods: In this study, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian Networks methods are combined to present a frame...