this paper is about cointegration relation among price index in tehran stock exchange (tepix) and some of the macroeconomic variables, including consumer price index (cpi), exchange rate, housing starts and industrial utilization starts. we are looking for a relation and also the direction of the causal effects among above mentioned variables, using quarterly data from 1369 to 1377. avoiding sp...

abstract: with regard to the basel committee’s emphasis on the necessity of using 10-day value-at-risk (var) internal models in order to determine minimum market risk capital requirements, and downsides of the square-root-of-time rule, our purpose is to produce more accurate forecasts of the multi-period var using sixteen models for three stock indices, the tepix, nasdaq, and ftse. the results,...

modeling dependence structure in financial economics is of paramount importance when estimating portfolio’s value at risk, since risk of an asset in addition to its own behavior is also dependent on the behavior of other assets in the portfolio. application of joint distribution copula is one of the methods for incorporation dependence at lower and upper tail of returns’ distribution in financi...

the markowitz’s optimization problem is considered as a standard quadratic programming problem that has exact mathematical solutions. considering real world limits and conditions, the portfolio optimization problem is a mixed quadratic and integer programming problem for which efficient algorithms do not exist. therefore, the use of meta-heuristic methods such as neural networks and evolutionar...

in this paper, we have estimated the memory of thetehran stock exchange indices. the estimation of fractional differencing parameter is carried out by various methods such as mle, nls, hurst exponent, gph, lo, whittle and wavelet. the estimation results of whittle, wavelet, hurst, and lo methods allow us to conclude that the returns on stock indices (tepix, tedpix, tedix, financial index and in...

this paper studies the effect of considering time varying skewness and kurtosis on the estimation of value at risk (var) for both long and short positions using the hyaparch model and daily data for tehran stock exchange price index (tepix). our results show that applying conditional distributions with time varying or constant skewness and degrees of freedom is able to capture the asymmetry app...