In this study we develop the hybrid models for forecasting in agricultural production planning. Real data of Thailand’s orchid export and Thailand’s pork product are used to validate candidate models. Autoregressive Integrate Moving Average (ARIMA) is also selected as a benchmarking to compare other developed models. The main concept of building the models is to combine different forecasting te...

Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a broad class of time series models, and it has been achieved using the statistical differencing approach. It is normally being performed using the computational method. Thus, it is useful to choose the suitable model from a possibly large selection of the available ARIMA formulations. The ARIMA approach was then analysed with the presence of...

BACKGROUND We previously proposed a hybrid model combining both the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) models in forecasting schistosomiasis. Our purpose in the current study was to forecast the annual prevalence of human schistosomiasis in Yangxin County, using our ARIMA-NARNN model, thereby further certifying the reliabilit...

The objective of this paper is to apply the Translog Stochastic Frontier production model (SFA) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to estimate efficiencies over time and the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth rate for Bangladeshi rice crops (Aus, Aman and Boro) throughout the most recent data available comprising the period 1989-2008. Results indicate that technical efficiency was observed...

BACKGROUND China is a country that is most seriously affected by hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) with 90% of HFRS cases reported globally. At present, HFRS is getting worse with increasing cases and natural foci in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence to make the control of HFRS more effective. In this study, we applied a stochastic...

OBJECTIVE Injury is currently an increasing public health problem in China. Reducing the loss due to injuries has become a main priority of public health policies. Early warning of injury mortality based on surveillance information is essential for reducing or controlling the disease burden of injuries. We conducted this study to find the possibility of applying autoregressive integrated moving...

Canada has implemented legislation covering all firearms since 1977 and presents a model to examine incremental firearms control. The effect of legislation on homicide by firearm and the subcategory, spousal homicide, is controversial and has not been well studied to date. Legislative effects on homicide and spousal homicide were analyzed using data obtained from Statistics Canada from 1974 to ...

Tuberculosis is a major global public health problem, which also affects economic and social development. China has the second largest burden of tuberculosis in the world. The tuberculosis morbidity in Xinjiang is much higher than the national situation; therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting tuberculosis morbidity so as to make the control of tuberculosis more effecti...

This study compares two new seasonal adjustment methods designed to handle outliers and structural changes: X-IZARIMA and GAUSUM-STM. X12-ARIMA is a successor to the X-ll-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method, and is being developed at the U.S. Bureau of the Census (Findley et al. (1988)). GAUSUM-STM is a non-Gaussian method using time series structural models, and was developed for this study based...