In the analysis and prediction of real-world systems, two of the key problems are nonstationarity (often in the form of switching between regimes) and overfitting (particularly serious for noisy processes). This article addresses these problems using gated experts, consisting of a (nonlinear) gating network, and several (also nonlinear) competing experts. Each expert learns to predict the condi...

Land-use change has an impact on growing physical flood vulnerability. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approaches are increasingly being used for vulnerability assessments. However, none time-series land cover data evaluation rainfall over various return periods prediction simultaneously, especially in Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate pr...

Previous studies have suggested better learning when people actively intervene rather than when they passively observe the stimuli in a judgment task. In 4 experiments, the authors investigated the hypothesis that this improvement is associated with a shift from exemplar memory to cue abstraction. In a multiple-cue judgment task with continuous cues, the data replicated the improvement with int...

This study proposes a partially-combined forecasting framework for container throughput based on big data composed of structured historical data and unstructured data. Under the proposed framework, the structured data (the original time series) is firstly decomposed into linear and nonlinear components. Seasonal auto-regression integrated moving average model (SARIMA) is adopted to capture and ...

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of kinesthetic training' on handwriting performance in first-grade students 6 to 7 years of age who had kinesthetic deficits and handwriting difficulties. METHOD With a randomized-blinded three group research design, 45 children were assigned to either a kinesthetic training group, a handwriting practice group, or a no treatmen...

Paleoclimatology requires the analysis of paleo time-series, obtained from a number of independent techniques and instruments, produced by several researchers and/or laboratories. Analytical reasoning techniques that combine the judgment of paleoceanographers with automated reasoning techniques are needed to gain deep insights about commplex climatic phenomena. This paper presents an interactiv...

This paper demonstrates the use of dynamic fuzzy-reasoning-based function estimator (DFFE) to interpolate rainfall data in a case study in Switzerland. The functional parameters are also optimized by genetic algorithms (GA). The procedure operates on a series of overlapping partition surfaces around the study area based on expert knowledge and interpretive judgment. The procedure allows for spa...

All too frequently, a software cost estimate is required in the early stages of the life-cycle when requirements and design specifications are immature. To produce a cost estimate under these conditions requires extensive use of expert judgment and addressing significant estimation uncertainty. Research has shown that expert judgment under the right conditions can yield relatively "accurate" es...