2 Introduction 3 NAIRU vs. Keynes: conflicting theories of unemployment 4 Empirical work (review) 6 Econometric method 7 Testing the NAIRU story 8 Testing the Keynesian story 11 Combining NAIRU and Keynesian factors 12 Conclusion 14 Bibliography 15 Tables 17 Table 1. A NAIRU model 17 Table 2. A Keynesian model 18 Table 3. Unmployment regression: u = c + ∆ infl + rr + ud + tw + tot 19 Table 4. U...

This paper is part of a broader project that provides a microfoundation to the General Theory of J. M. Keynes. I call this project “old Keynesian economics” to distinguish it from new-Keynesian economics, a theory that is based on the idea that to make sense of Keynes we must assume that prices are sticky. I describe a multi-good model in which I interpret the definitions of aggregate demand an...

In this paper we present a fixprice model in which private and public consumption show some degree of substitution. We offer formulae for the Keynesian multiplier which depend on this degree of substitution. We also show that there is a Pigou effect and that, sometimes, this effect is larger than the Keynesian multiplier. * The author acknowledges comments from Alberto Alonso and financial supp...

The speci…cation of the accumulation function is critical for the properties and implications of structuralist and post-Keynesian models. A large Kaleckian literature assumes that investment is relatively insensitive to variations in the utilization rate of capital, and this extension of a standard short-run "Keynesian stability condition" to the long run has been defended by Lavoie and Dutt, a...

We document that "persistent and lagged" in‡ation (with respect to output) is a worldwide phenomenon in that these short-run in‡ation dynamics are highly synchronized across countries. In particular, the average cross-country correlation of in‡ation is signi…cantly and systematically stronger than that of output, while the cross-country correlation of money growth is essentially zero. We invest...

In the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s, models used for monetary policy analysis combined the assumption of nominal rigidity with a simple structure that linked the quantity of money to aggregate spending. While the theoretical foundations of these models were weak, the approach proved remarkably useful in addressing a wide range of monetary policy topics.1 Today, the standard approach in monetar...

S. Kuznets's study that the average propensity to consume is a constant value were nexpected because they denied one of the basic provisions of the Keynesian theory. This fact was called "the riddle of Kuznets".  F. Modigliani and M. Friedman, using the hypothesis of the life cycle and the concept of constant income, proposed two options that explain its solution. But models should not explain,...

Structural change has been conjectured to lead to an upward bias in the estimated forward expectations coefficient in New-Keynesian Phillips curves. We present a simple New-Keynesian model that enables us to assess this proposition. In particular, we investigate the issue of upward bias in the estimated coefficients of the expectations variable in the New-Keynesian Phillips curve based on a mod...