this research analyze the resource and structure of cross-autocorrelation in returns and volatility of stocks that listed in the tehran stock exchange during the period farvardin 1382–eisfand 1386, with employing the garch model. at the first, the results show that, in down(bear) market, return on high trading volume portfolio lead return on low trading volume portfolio, when controlled for fir...

Since many of predictive financial variables are highly persistent and non-stationary, it is challenging econometrically to explore the predictability of asset returns. Predictability issues are generally addressed in parametric regressions [1,2] in which rates of asset returns are regressed against the lagged values of stochastic explanatory variables, but three limitations stand ahead [3-5]. ...

The dynamic effect of idiosyncratic risk on market returns has been debated recently. Previous studies examine the effect based on a regression of excess returns on one-lagged volatility. We claim this approach provides only a partial, limited picture of the dynamic effect of idiosyncratic risk that tends to be persistent over time. By correcting for the serial correlation in idiosyncratic vola...

Abstract. We propose nonparametric estimators for conditional value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) associated with conditional distributions of a series of returns on a financial asset. The return series and the conditioning covariates, which may include lagged returns and other exogenous variables, are assumed to be strong mixing and follow a fully nonparametric conditional location...

We study the cross-sectional dispersion in daily stock returns, or daily return dispersion (RD). Our primary empirical contribution is to demonstrate that RD contains reliable incremental information about the future traditional volatility of both firm-level and portfolio-level returns. The relation between RD and future stock volatility is pervasive across time and across different industry po...

The authors examine how the co-movement between daily stock and Treasury bond returns varies with stock market uncertainty. They use the lagged implied volatility from equity index options to provide an objective, observable, and dynamic measure of stock market uncertainty. The authors find that stock and bond returns tend to move substantially together during periods of lower stock market unce...

Wepropose a utility-theoretic brand-choice model that accounts for four different sources of state dependence: 1. effects of lagged choices (structural state dependence), 2. effects of serially correlated error terms in the random utility function (habit persistence type 1), 3. effects of serial correlations between utility-maximizing alternatives on successive purchase occasions of a household...

This study is the first to simultaneously analyze the relation between aggregate stock market returns and cash flows of the various investor groups that constitute the entire stock market in the United States. We examine the relation between investor flows and stock market returns over a long time period from 1952 to 2004, and also examine the relation between investor flows and longer-term sto...

In this article, we examine whether social media information affects the price-discovery process for cross-listed companies. Using over 29 million overnight tweets mentioning companies, role of a link between last periods trading in US markets and first UK market. Our estimates suggest that size content flows on networks support process. The interactions lagged stock features significantly affe...