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We develop a novel term-structure model for pricing GDP-linked bonds, hypothetical securities with cash-flows indexed to the level of U.S. GDP. For this purpose, we rely on equity yields estimated using prices dividend swaps, which assume span GDP growth. Our approach provides way estimating relative cost conventional and as well measuring more general market-based expectations (and risks aroun...

Using the demand side approach we construct a new set of estimates of per capita agricultural output and per capita GDP for England over the period 1250-1850. Our estimates of per capita GDP suggest that the pattern of long run growth of the English economy can be interpreted with a periodization in three historical stages. The first stage, covering the period 1250-1580, is a Malthusian phase w...

This paper examines the relationship between intellectual property rights (IPRs) and the growth rate of per capita GDP during the period 1996-2006 in a sample 71 countries. Using software piracy data as a proxy for IPR violations, we find that countries with increasing rates of software piracy have lower growth rates. We also find that states with strong commitments to enact policies to protect...

This paper investigates the effects of health indicators such as adult survival rates (ASR) on GDP growth rates at 5-year intervals in several countries. Panel data were analyzed on GDP series based on purchasing power adjustments and on exchange rates. First, we developed a framework for modeling the inter-relationships between GDP growth rates and explanatory variables by re-examining the lif...

The recent “benign” combination of strong output growth and low inflation has led to speculation that the potential growth rate of real GDP has increased. This paper exam ines trends in labor supply to see whether this source of GDP growth might have accelerated. Discussions of labor supply often focus on labor force p a rt i c i p ation. But other considerat i o ns—s u ch as the length of the ...

I document that government debt is related to risk premia in various asset markets: (i) the debt-to-GDP ratio positively predicts excess stock returns with out-of-sample R2 up to 30% at a five-year horizon, outperforming many popular predictors; (ii) the debt-to-GDP ratio is positively correlated with credit risk premia in both corporate bond excess returns and yield spreads; (iii) higher debt-...