This paper reviews a variety of alternative approaches to the specification of the expectations of economic decisionmakers in dynamic models, and reconsiders familiar results in the theory of monetary and fiscal policy when one allows for departures from the hypothesis of rational expectations. The various approaches are all illustrated in the context of a common model, a log-linearized New Key...

This paper examines a tractable real business cycle model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks and binding credit constraints on entrepreneurs. The model shows how firm volatility increases in combination with credit market development. It further generates the observed comovement of credit and firm volatility with output at business cycle frequencies in response to aggregate productivity sho...

Cloud computing is becoming one of the major technological changes for business management in the last decade. From internal management to supply chain management, various services can be provided by cloud providers that locate somewhere in the world. However, despite its pervasive impact on business and economy, its understanding on the effect on economy is still in early stage. On the other h...

This paper studies the effects of a one-child policy. A benchmark without the fertility constraint is compared to a counterfactual experiment with the fertility constraint in place. The results suggest that imposition of a one-child policy promotes the accumulation of human capital and increases per capita output. In partial equilibrium, an unskilled adult’s welfare is lowered by the policy. Ho...

This is the third paper of a series of macroeconomic modeling that tries to model macroeconomic dynamics on the basis of the principle of accounting system dynamics developed by the author. Money supply and creation processes of deposits were modeled in the first paper, while second paper built dynamic determination processes of GDP, interest rate and price level. In this paper, these two separ...

This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII real-time data, we estimate for 39 countries. The cross-country dimension allows us study the impact shocks under varying degrees employment protection legislation. e...

This study, examines the roles of macroeconomic uncertainty, political risk, as well as host country institutions, in affecting FDI inflows into African economies. The past few decades have witnessed a surge of FDI inflows to developing regions. However, FDI inflows to Africa still remain small when compared to other developing regions. What characteristics does Africa exhibit that deter FDI in...