In this work introduce an adaptive method of portfolio optimization. The basic idea is to describe essential movements of the stock price using a hidden Markov model and to calculate the optimal portfolio using a recursive algorithm. The portfolio optimization is adaptive in the sense that the standard EM–algorithm fits the model to historical data, which improves the portfolio performance.

Portfolio theory assumes that investors accept risk. This means thatin the equal rate of return on the two assets, the assets were chosenthat have a lower risk level. Modern portfolio theory is accepted byinvestors who believe that they are not cope with the market. Sothey keep many different types of securities in order to access theoptimum efficiency rate that is close to the rate of return o...

The influence of changing economic environment leads the distribution of stock market returns to be time-varying. This requires a dynamic adjustment of the asset allocation in order to enjoy a conditionally optimal investment. In this context, we examine the improvement of the portfolio performance by simulating portfolio strategies that are conditioned on the Markov regime switching behavior o...

This paper treats the risk-averse optimal portfolio problem with consumption in continuous time for a stochastic-jump-volatility, jump-diffusion (SJVJD) model of the underlying risky asset and the volatility. The new developments are the use of the SJVJD model with logtruncated-double-exponential jump-amplitude distribution in returns and exponential jumpamplitude distribution in volatility for...

One of the features of a financial market, the stock market, in particular, is the market sentiment which is the overall attitude of investors toward a particular security or financial market. Investors always seek to create a portfolio with minimum risk while maintaining the expected return level. Therefore, perceiving the relationship between the stock returns and markets returns can be helpf...

Cover’s celebrated theorem states that the long run yield of a properly chosen “universal” portfolio is as good as the long run yield of the best retrospectively chosen constant rebalanced portfolio. The “universality” pertains to the fact that this result is model-free, i.e., not dependent on an underlying stochastic process. We extend Cover’s theorem to the setting of stochastic portfolio the...

one of known methods for measuring, forecasting and managing risk is value at risk, which recently has been used by financial institutions extensively. value at risk (var) is a method for recognizing and evaluating risk and uses standard statistical techniques that have daily using in other contexts. this research is seeking a career for managing investment risk in stock exchange and selection ...

Portfolio selection process is a subject focused by many researchers. Various criteria involved in this process have undergone alterations over time, necessitating the use of appropriate investment decision support tools. An optimization approach used in different sciences is using meta-heuristic algorithms. In the present study, using Water Cycle Algorithm (WCA), a model was introduced for sel...

financial derivatives are new instruments through which hedging, investment and arbitrage are done in a modern economy. although the word 'derivative'primarily reminds us of options and futures, the major focus of the equity derivatives industry worldwide is on index derivatives. launching index options and index futures in tehran stock exchange, not only increases financial market de...