We present a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. By determining their risk attitudes and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, we are able to assess the probability of the future outcome of an uncertain event and compare it to both the objective probability of its occurrence ...

in this paper, a model based on gmdh type neural network, is used to predict gas price in the spot market while using oil spot market price, gas spot market price, gas future market price, oil future market price and average temperature of the weather. the results suggest that gmdh neural network model, according to the root mean squared error (rmse) and direction statistics (dstat) statistics ...