This paper investigates market perceptions of the risk of large exchange rate movements by using information gleaned from risk reversal contracts and macroeconomic news surprises. We focus on the height of the carry trade period in Japan (March 2004 through December 2006). Concerns about sharp yen appreciation were particularly evident during the period of heavy carry trade activity and are mor...

w hether the united kingdom (uk) should remain in the european :union: (eu) or not has been a fiercely debated issue both before and after the referendum in the uk on june 23, 2016. the main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the pros and cons of the uk leaving the eu. it is concluded that if the uk leaves the eu, the resulting economic shock would risk adverse effects on macroeconomic variab...

We present a theory of why some countries negotiate trade agreements during economic downturns. We argue that political leaders can gain from such agreements because of the signals they send to their publics. Publics are less likely to blame leaders for bad economic conditions when they have implemented sound economic policies, such as signing and implementing agreements designed to liberalize ...

I use bilateral import data to test for the role of trade costs and asset market frictions in impeding international consumption risk sharing. Trade costs play a significant role. I do not reject the null of optimal risk sharing within OECD countries, though I do reject for the world as a whole. I calculate the impact on ex-post welfare of moving from historical asset market frictions to optima...

Viewed from a global perspective, trade propagates but does not create risk. Trade reduces price variability for regions facing less-than-perfectly correlated random shocks and may allow risk pooling that reduces the demand for private and public insurance, whereas autarky is characterized by price, income, and utility risk. Trade may also shift the distribution of risk among households, possib...

This paper studies empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk faced by workers. The analysis proceeds in three steps. First, longitudinal data on workers are used to estimate time-varying individual income risk parameters in various manufacturing sectors. The estimated income risk parameters and data on trade barriers are then used to analyze the relationship b...

The panzootic of the H5N1 strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza has become an international crisis. All parts of the world are now considered at risk due to trade globalisation, with the worldwide movement of animals, products and humans, and because of the possible spread of the virus through the migration of wild birds. The risk of introducing notifiable avian influenza (NAI) through tr...