This paper develops an estimated hybrid model that combines the micro-founded DSGE model with the flexibility of the theoretical VAR model. The model is estimated via the maximum likelihood technique based on quarterly data on real Gross National Product (GNP), consumption, investment and hours worked, for the South African economy, over the period of 1970:1 to 2000:4. Based on a recursive esti...

This paper evaluates the suitability of current DSGE models for monetary policy analysis from a Bayesian perspective, recognizing that these models may be useful even if they are misspecified along some dimensions, using the framework laid out in Faust and Gupta (2009). The paper argues that practical monetary policy analysis deals with determining how intended policy should be revised in light...

Real Expectations: Replacing Rational Expectations with Survey Expectations in Dynamic Macro Models Jeff Fuhrer Abstract: This paper examines the implications of changing the expectations assumption that is embedded in nearly all current macroeconomic models. The paper substitutes measured or “real” expectations for rational expectations in an array of standard macroeconomic relationships, as w...

The Boltzmann–Gibbs distribution is currently widely used in economic modeling. One of the applications is integrated with the DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model. However, a question that arises concerns whether the Boltzmann–Gibbs distribution can be directly applied, without considering the underlying social network structure more seriously, even though the social network str...

This paper considers tests of the effectiveness of a policy intervention, defined as a change in the parameters of a policy rule, in the context of a macroeconometric dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We consider two types of intervention, first the standard case of a parameter change that does not alter the steady state, and second one that does alter the steady state, e.g. ...