We propose a new method for constructing the hedge component in Merton’s ICAPM that uses a daily summary measure of economic activity to track time-varying investment opportunities. We then use nonparametric projections to compute a robust estimate of the conditional covariance between stock market returns and our daily economic activity index. We find that the new conditional covariance risk m...

this paper presents a mapping procedure for risk mapping of water and wind erosion, whichhelps to identify protective measures needed in the planning and management of natural parks. the map of water erosion risk was developed by combining the original and revised universal soil loss equation methodologies (usle-rusle), and the map of wind erosion risk was developed using quirantes’ method. usi...

When dealing with market risk under the Basel II Accord, variation pays in the form of lower capital requirements and higher profits. Typically, GARCH type models are chosen to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a single risk model. In this paper we illustrate two useful variations to the standard mechanism for choosing forecasts, namely: (i) combining different forecast models for each period,...

every year, many accidents leading to physical injuries in kindergartens, indicates that a very large percentage of them are related to the safety concerns and lack of hygiene in these places. families, due to their busy life style and working hours and also children needs of preschool education, are searching to find most suitable kindergartens for their children. selecting a kindergarten with...

large and complex infrastructure projects involve various risk factors and successful implementation of such project depends on effective management of the key risk factors. this paper reviews the literature to identify essential risk variables associated with infrastructure projects. base of these risk variables and case studies of same projects, a survey is conducted to isolate and assess the...

uncertainties in industrial environments can cause considerable complexities, during the implementation and management of projects. so, performing a risk management model in such environments has become inevitable. in such circumstances, many risk management models have been introduced in literature, which majorities of them are general, while some of them are developed to be applied to specifi...

risk management is one of the most important phases of project management and isthe most recently used by many researchers. in this paper, a fuzzy based method wasproposed which identifies different kinds of risks through the project life cycle.then, the project risk magnitude can be obtained in regards to five factors, namely“severity”, “occurrence”, and “not detection” which form fuzzy fmea a...