Using panel data for 68 countries over the period 1975-2002 this paper examines how IMF programs, disbursed loans, and compliance with conditionality affect the risk of currency crises and the outcome of such crises. Specifically, we investigate whether countries with previous IMF intervention are more likely to experience currency crises. In a second step, we analyze the IMF’s impact on a coun...

In response to the financial crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve radically increased the monetary base. Banks responded by increasing excess reserves rather than increasing bank loans, and the public responded with a substantial flight to liquidity in the form of currency and demand deposits. As a result, the money-supply multipliers substantially decreased, so that the actual money supply meas...

Given the volatility of exchange rates, there is a reemergence of interest in the effect of such volatility, in particular of large currency shocks, on the domestic financial markets and the output and investment decisions of firms. We use a portfolio approach to model the occurrence of large exchange rate shocks as deriving from the asset allocation decisions of the households of a small open ...

This paper proposes an original and unified toolbox to evaluate financial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWS). It presents four main advantages. First, it is a model free method which can be used to asses the forecasts issued from different EWS (probit, logit, markov switching models, or combinations of models). Second, this toolbox can be applied to any type of crisis EWS (currency, banking, so...

the frequent occurrence of currency crises in recent years brought the early warning literature back in the researchers spotlight. in recent years, concept of an early warning system (ews) developed that should be able to identify various costly events, such as currency crises, early enough for policy makers to reduce the costs. this study attempted by using iran's economy quarterly data d...

Abstract: Central banks have long been interested in obtaining precise estimations of money demand given the fact that the evolution of money demand plays a key role over several monetary variables. One implication of currency substitution is that the exchange rate could serve as another determinant of the demand for money. Due to the recent currency crisis in Iran, it would be important to inv...

one of the necessary preconditions to the establishment and stability of optimal currency area is the homogeneity of the economic structure in member states. but place with eurozone currency crisis, the question arises whether the economic structure of the eurozone countries were homogeneous? accordingly, this study by using an econometrics model and estimating it by panel data method, has been...

Hedging is no longer an option for multinational corporations, especially during global financial crisis. This was clearly manifested in companies’ comprehensive income statement as in WalMart’s case that “During fiscal 2009, foreign currency exchange rate had a $2.3 billion unfavorable impact on the international segment’s net sales” and the company just lost $680 million in the second quarter...

Soon after the establishment of the Eurozone it became obvious that the structural differences between member countries would not abate, as expected, but rather gradually widen. Although part of the problem can be attributed to the enlargement process, it also relates to asymmetric effects of the common currency and to diverging economic policies. This paper discusses the literature which assoc...