Crude oil is a highly strategic commodity. This paper investigates the necessity of using interval data and interval econometric models for crude oil price forecasting. Compared to the traditional point-valued data, interval-valued data in a time period contain much more valuable information which is useful for market participant to make decisions. We develop three autoregressive conditional in...

A range of energy-economy models forecast losses to members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should the Kyoto Protocol come into force. These forecasts are a powerful influence in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations. They are used by OPEC to advance the agenda on the impacts of response measures, covertly arguing for compensation for...

The US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration recently predicted that world oil production could continue to increase for more than three decades, based on the recent US Geological Survey (USGS) evaluation of world oil resources and a simple, transparent model. However, it can be shown that this model is not consistent with actual oil production records in many different regio...

In the winter of 1973, some major oil exporting countries joined together to declare an embargo on oil exports to some of the western countries for political reasons. Elated by their success and the realization that they controlled a major share of the oil exports, they subsequently raised the price of oil four-fold and cut back production, thereby obtaining, in the face of an almost inelastic ...

This study seeks to explain why crude oil prices fluctuate, the main cause being the quota regime, which characterises the OPEC agreements. Given that the Saudi oil supply is inelastic in the short term, a shock in the oil market is accommodated by an immediate price change. In contrast, a dominant firm behaviour in the long term causes an output change, which is accompanied by a smaller price ...

Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC Russia (known as OPEC+) cut production in an attempt to raise the price crude oil. In corona virus shock collapse this coalition, members did not agree on keeping market tight face large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC+ actually effective sustaining oil? early when strategy place, inventories fell substantially re...

in this paper, a novel hybrid model based on neural network and game theory is proposed to support the analyzers in oil market. in this model, first the neural network is utilized to learn the oil prices associated with opec production level and usa imports level. then the learned neural network is applied by a game model. finally the nash equilibrium points of the game present the optimum deci...