We present a new strategy to estimate the geometry of a rupture on a finite fault in real time for earthquake early warning. We extend the work of Cua and Heaton who developed the virtual seismologist (VS) method (Cua, 2005), which is a Bayesian approach to seismic early warning using envelope attenuation relationships. This article extends the VS method to large earthquakes where fault finiten...

We study how the fault dip and slip rake angles affect near-source ground velocities and displacements as faulting transitions from strike-slip motion on a vertical fault to thrust motion on a shallow-dipping fault. Ground motions are computed for five fault geometries with different combinations of fault dip and rake angles and common values for the fault area and the average slip. The nature ...

Slow slip forms part of the spectrum of fault behaviour between stable creep and destructive earthquakes1,2. Slow slip occurs near the boundaries of large earthquake rupture zones3,4 and may sometimes trigger fast earthquakes2. It is thought to occur in faults comprised of rocks that strengthen under fast slip rates, preventing rupture as a normal earthquake, or on faults that have elevated por...

Two-dimensional lattice particle models have been used to simulate dynamic thrust faulting and its effects on near-fault ground motions. The lattice particle modeling approach has been demonstrated as an efficient way to model the dynamic rupture phenomena observed from a foam rubber experiment on dipping faults. We constructed a 42 dipping fault model to simulate near-fault ground motions unde...

The great Assam earthquake of 12 June 1897 reduced to rubble all masonry buildings within a region of NE India roughly the size of England, and its felt area exceeded that of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake. Hitherto it was believed that rupture occurred on a north-dipping Himalayan thrust propagating south of Bhutan . We show here that this view is incorrect. The northern edge of the Shillong Plate...

We use the 2D finite element method to determine how geometrical parameters determine whether rupture will propagate across a linked stepover in a strike-slip fault. The end segments of the fault system are aligned in the direction of maximum shear, and the length and angle of the linking segment are allowed to vary. We observe that ruptures propagate through extensional stepovers with steeper ...

The Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008 is the most destructive earthquake in China in the past 30 years in terms of property damage and human losses. In order to understand the earthquake process and the geo-morphological factors affecting the seismic hazard, we simulated the strong ground motion caused by the earthquake, incorporating three-dimensional (3D) earth structure, finite-fault ruptur...

[1] We perform numerical simulations of spontaneous dynamic rupture governed by a slip-weakening law along a bimaterial interface (fault) with off-fault damage in the form of Coulomb plastic yielding. Off-fault plastic yielding stabilizes the wrinkle-like slip pulse in terms of a decreasing rate of slip velocity growth. With a variety of model parameters, ruptures on the fault are bilateral, wh...

The damaged rock around mature faults forms a zone of low seismic wave 24 velocities, which can perturb important earthquake rupture properties. In particular, waves 25 reflected within the fault zone structure can induce short-duration slip pulses, an apparently 26 predominant earthquake rupture mode. Another known mechanism to generate slip pulses is 27 strong velocity-weakening friction. Her...

11 Earthquakes can rupture geometrically complex fault systems by breaching fault step-overs. 12 Quantifying the likelihood of rupture jump across step-overs is important to evaluate earth13 quake hazard and to understand the interactions between dynamic rupture and fault growth 14 processes. Here we investigate the role of seismogenic depth and background stress on phys15 ical limits of earthq...