‎Pricing weather derivatives is becoming increasingly useful‎, ‎especially in developing economies‎. ‎We describe a statistical model based approach for pricing  weather derivatives by modeling and forecasting daily average temperatures data which exhibits long-range dependence‎. ‎We pre-process the temperature data by filtering for seasonality and volatility an...

This article starts by discussing the concept of “inflation hedging” and provides some estimates of “inflation betas” for standard bond and well-diversified equity indices for over 45 countries. We show that such standard securities are poor inflation hedges. Expanding the menu of assets to foreign bonds, real estate and gold only improves matters marginally. This indicates a potentially import...

The goal of this article is an estimate of the objective forward-looking U.S. equity risk premium relative to bonds through history—specifically, since 1802. For correct evaluation, such a complex topic requires several careful steps: To gauge the risk premium for stocks relative to bonds, we need an expected real stock return and an expected real bond return. To gauge the expected real bond re...

Estimates of the historical equity risk premium in the UK are in the range 7% to 9% per annum. Until recently, portfolio investors and industrialists have been encouraged to use a premium of this order in making investment decisions. The purpose of this paper is to review the risk premium debate and to re-inforce the case for rejecting historical experience in formulating future investment plan...

1 This paper has bene…ted from the communications with Steve Matthews on related issues. The authors also wish to thank Jacob Goeree for suggesting the approach taken in this study, and to Jan Boone, Dan Levin, and Sander Onderstal for helpful comments and discussions. The paper is a signi…cant extension of Chapter 4 of Audrey Hu's Ph.D. thesis " Essays on Auctions, " sponsored by the Netherlan...

We use surveys of economic forecasts to derive a forward-looking estimate of the US equity risk premium (ERP) relative to government bonds. Our ERP measure helps predict short-term relative returns between stocks and bonds. Over the period we studied, low readings of the ERP tended to adjust back to the mean via a rally in the bond market rather than a fall in stock prices. We do not generalise...

This paper provides a method for estimating the market risk premium that accounts for shifts in investment opportunities by explicitly modeling the underlying process governing the level of market volatility. I find that approximately 50% of the measured risk premium is related to the risk of future changes in investment opportunities. Evidence of a structural shift in the underlying volatility...

A method for computing forward-looking market risk premium is developed in this paper. We first derive a theoretical expression that links forward-looking risk premium to investors’ risk aversion and forward-looking volatility, skewness and kurtosis of cumulative return. In addition, investors’ risk aversion is theoretically linked to volatility spread, defined as the gap between the risk-neutr...