This work examines translational science in cancer based on theories of innovation that posit a relationship between the maturation of technologies and their capacity to generate successful products. We examined the growth of technologies associated with 138 anticancer drugs using an analytical model that identifies the point of initiation of exponential growth and the point at which growth slo...

This study uses the scientific and patent literature as a source of data to analyze the relationship between author/inventor contribution spans and the rate of technological progress in two chemical fields. Using survival analysis statistics, the authors examine the probability that an individual will contribute to the field for a specified length of time and the probability that an individual,...

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be gene...