Recent advances in the theory of credit risk allow the use of standard term structure machinery for default risk modeling and estimation. The empirical literature in this area often interprets the drift adjustments of the default intensity’s diffusion state variables as the only default risk premium. We show that this interpretation implies a restriction on the form of possible default risk pre...

This paper presents a semi-analytical valuation method for basket credit derivatives in a flexible intensity-based model. Default intensities are modeled as correlated affine jump-diffusions. An empirical application documents that the model fits market prices of benchmark basket credit derivatives reasonably well, consistent with the observed correlation skew. Hence, I argue, contrary to comme...

In this note, we develop stock option price approximations for a model which takes both the risk o default and the stochastic volatility into account. We also let the intensity of defaults be influenced by the volatility. We show that it might be possible to infer the risk neutral default intensity from the stock option prices. Our option price approximation has a rich implied volatility surfac...

This paper introduces and explores variations on a natural extension of the intensity based doubly stochastic framework for credit default. The essential addition proposed here is to introduce a Markov chain for the “credit rating” of each firm, which are independent conditioned on a stochastic time change, or equivalently a stochastic intensity. The stochastic time change is then combined with...

In credit modeling, default intensity is known to depend on rating history-specific factors, notably credit rating, but variation in aggregate default rates over time presumably also reflects changes in general economic conditions. We fit Cox intensity models for defaults, as well as for major upgrades and downgrades in credit rating, with both rating history-specific factors and a broad range ...

In the reduced-form approach to credit modeling, default intensity has been found to depend on several firm-specific factors, most notably credit rating. But aggregate default rates also vary substantially over time, presumably reflecting changes in general economic conditions. In this paper, we fit Cox intensity models for major credit events, including defaults as well as major upgrades and d...

The pricing of collateralized debt obligations and other basket credit derivatives is contingent upon (i) a realistic modeling of the firms’ default times and the correlation between them, and (ii) efficient computational methods for computing the portfolio loss distribution from the individual firms’ default time distributions. Factor models, a widelyused class of pricing models, are computati...

This paper provides a model for the recovery rate process in a reduced form model. After default, a firm continues to operate, and the recovery rate is determined by the value of the firm’s assets relative to its liabilities. The debt recovers a different magnitude depending upon whether or not the firm enters insolvency and bankruptcy. Although this recovery rate process is similar to that use...