The problem of robust estimation and multivariate outlier detection of the term structure of default intensity is considered. Both themultivariate Vasicek andCIRmodels, embedding the Kalman filter algorithm in a forward search context, are used to estimate default intensity. The focus is not on the estimation of credit models including jumps, but on the automatic detection ofmaskedmultiple outl...

Using term structure data of Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads for the four Japanese mega-banks and the government, we jointly estimate the default intensity and expected recovery (loss) given a default. In doing so, we attempt to further identify the difference in the expected recovery ratios between senior and subordinated CDS contracts. Estimation results are summarized as follows. (i) The d...

We present a general model for default time, making precise the role of the intensity process, and showing that this process allows for a knowledge of the conditional distribution of the default only “before the default”. This lack of information is crucial while working in a multi-default setting. In a single default case, the knowledge of the intensity process does not allow to compute the pr...

We present a general model for default time, making precise the role of the intensity process, and showing that this process allows for a knowledge of the conditional distribution of the default only “before the default”. This lack of information is crucial while working in a multi-default setting. In a single default case, the knowledge of the intensity process does not allow to compute the pr...

In credit risk models, it is usually assumed that the intensity processes contain all the necessary information about the default times. This is indeed the case when the appropriate immersion properties hold, so that one can compute the conditional law of the default times in terms of the intensity processes. In this paper, we characterize the immersion properties in terms of the terminal value...

It is very important for bank to control the credit risk of guarantee loan or combinational loan by evaluating the joint default risk of different enterprises. Firstly we apply a combinational copula function to measure the joint default risk of two enterprises with credit rating information; secondly the default intensity model is intended to analyze the default time distribution; thirdly we u...

This paper mainly discusses the pricing of credit default swap (CDS) in the fractional dimension environment. We assume that the default intensity of a firm depends on the default states of counterparty firms and the term structure of interest rates, but the contagious impact of the counterparty firm is decreasing over time, until disappears. The interest rate risk is reflected by the fractiona...

Defaults in a credit portfolio of many obligors or in an economy populated with firms tend to occur in waves. This may simply reflect their sharing of common risk factors and/or manifest their systemic linkages via credit chains. One popular approach to characterizing defaults in a large pool of obligors is the Poisson intensity model coupled with stochastic covariates. A constraining feature o...

‎The aim of this paper is to generalize the comprehensive structural model for defaultable fixed income bonds (considered in R‎. ‎Agliardi‎, ‎A comprehensive structural model for defaultable fixed-income bondsو Quant‎. ‎Finance 11 (2011)‎, ‎no‎. ‎5‎, ‎749--762.) into a comprehensive unified model of structural and reduced form models‎. ‎In our model the bond holders receive the deterministic co...

I develop various frameworks for the separation of loss given default and default intensity present in securities with credit risk. They include spot and forward credit default swaps, digital default swaps and bonds. Cross-sectional no-arbitrage restriction between different securities extracts the pure measure of default intensity and loss given default not contaminated by the other. Using spo...