There is a growing need for more systematic, robust, and comprehensive information on the value-add of climate services from both demand supply sides. shortage published assessments that focus decision-making context, involve participatory or co-evaluation approaches, avoid over-simplification, address quantitative (e.g., economic) qualitative social) values services. The 12 case studies formed...

Business surveys are an important element in the analysis of the short-term economic situation because of the timeliness and nature of the information they convey. Especially, surveys are often involved in econometric models in order to provide an early assessment of the current state of the economy, which is of great interest for policy-makers. In this paper, we focus on non-seasonally adjuste...

Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts in terms of forecast accuracy and relative informational content. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing to generate forecasts. Therefore, implied volatility has the potential to reflect in...

Subjective Probability Forecasts for Recessions Kajal Lahiri is distinguished professor of economics and director of the Econometric Research Institute at the University at Albany, SUNY. He has been a visiting scholar at the Social Security Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, and the International Monetary Fund. He has received grants and contracts from the National Science Found...

Based on Monte Carlo simulations using both stationary and nonstationary data, a model selection approach which uses the SIC to select a "best" group of forecasts in the context of forecast combination regressions dominates a number of other techniques, including the standard t-statistic approach and the simple averaging rule. Our results are robust across various restricted and unrestricted ve...

Recently, the container shipping industry has become unpredictable due to volatility and major events affecting maritime sector. At same time, approaches estimating freight rates using econometric time series modelling have very important. Therefore, in this paper, different time-series models been explored that are related Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI). SMA, EWMA, and, SES, Holt ...

The comprehension of the anisotropy impacts on mechanical properties of the rolled steel sheets was investigated using a non-quadratic anisotropic yield function. In this study, experimental and modelling determination regarding the behaviour of an industrial rolled sheet for a ferritic stainless low-carbon steel were carried out. The parameters of the associated yield equation, derived from th...