This paper considers the problem of forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian model averaging. Practical methods for implementing Bayesian model averaging with factor models are described. These methods involve algorithms that simulate from the space defined by all possible models. We explain how these simulation algorithms can also be used to select the model with the highest ma...

Using survey data on expectations, we examine whether the post-war data are consistent with theories of a self-fulfilling inflation episode during the 1970s. Among commonly cited factors, oil and fiscal shocks do not appear to have triggered an increase in expected inflation that was subsequently validated by monetary policy. However, the evidence suggests that, prior to 1979, the Fed accommoda...

Good monetary policy is both simple and complicated. The principles for good monetary policy are simple: Perform flexible inflation targeting, which means aiming to stabilize inflation around an explicit low positive numerical inflation target with some weight also on stabilizing the output gap, that is, stabilizing output around a measure of potential output. Because of the lags between moneta...

We study the problem of obtaining accurately sized test statistics in finite samples for linear regression models where the error dependence is of unknown form. With an unknown dependence structure there is traditionally a trade-off between the maximum lag over which the correlation is estimated (the bandwidth) and the decision to introduce conditional heteroskedasticity. In consequence, the co...

Investing in research and development spending (R&D) affects total factor productivity (TFP).Recently new theories of economic growth have emphasized the relationship between R&D and TFPand also identified a number of channels through which a country’s R&D affects TFP of its tradepartner. This study seeks to estimate the effect of agricultural R&D and education spending and someother factors on...