Arctic sea ice drift forecasts of 6 h-9 days for the summer of 2014 are generated using the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS); the model is driven by 6 h atmospheric forecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2). Forecast ice drift speed is compared to drifting buoys and other observational platforms. Forecast positions are compared with actual positions 24 h-8 da...

inflation forecasting has been one of the requirements for the implementation of monetary policy in countries which their monetary authorities are pursuing inflation targeting regime. however, owing to central bank independence in one hand and as well as the lagged effects of monetary policies on inflation in the other, the monetary authorities should have the sound perspective about the future...

Wind and solar power generation differ from conventional power generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This can have significant impacts on grid operations. Short-term forecasting of wind and solar power generation is uniquely helpful for planning the balance of supply and demand in the electric power system because it allows for a reduction in the uncerta...

We develop a theoretical framework for understanding how agents form expectations about economic variables with a partially predictable component. Our model incorporates the e¤ect of measurement errors and heterogeneity in individual forecasters’prior beliefs and their information signals and also accounts for agents’learning in real time about past, current and future values of economic variab...

Prior literature observes that information uncertainty exacerbates investor underreaction behavior. In this paper, I investigate whether, as professional investment intermediaries, sellside analysts suffer more behavioral biases in cases of greater information uncertainty. I show that greater information uncertainty predicts more positive (negative) forecast errors and subsequent forecast revis...