Abstract The current study aims to investigate the relationship between Iran’s Targeted Subsidies Plan and the stock returns of listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Stock returns is obtained from the indices of three industries: pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and machinery and equipment. Moreover, the present research uses gold price and dollar price as control variables. The Targe...

We analyze time series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence i...

Recent studies show that individual investors tend to speculate on stock markets and hold shares with a lottery-like return. For this speculation of people have a significant impact on stock returns, individual investors must trade the same shares with the same time. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of the speculative bubble on the stock returns of companies in Iran. Foll...

This paper studies the use of social simulation in linking micro level investor behaviour and macro level stock market dynamics. Empirical data from a survey on individual investors' decision-making and social interaction was used to formalize the trading and interaction rules of the agents of the artificial stock market SimStockExchange. Multiple simulation runs were performed with this artifi...

We examine the explanatory and predictive power of fundamental macroeconomic and behavioral factors with regards to stock returns of the Dow Jones Industrials Index. With a novel sentiment dataset from over 3.6 million Reuters news articles, we nd signi cant correlations between Reuters sentiment and stock returns. We show with vector autoregression and error correction models that Reuters sent...

This paper examines the hypothesis that both stock returns and volatility are asymmetrical functions of past information derived from domestic and US stock-market news. By employing a double-threshold regression GARCH model to investigate four major index-return series, we find significant evidence to sustain the asymmetrical hypothesis of stock returns. Specifically, evidence strongly supports...

We examine the statistical power of fundamental and behavioral factors with regards to stock returns of the Dow Jones Industrials Index. With a novel sentiment dataset from over 3.6 million Reuters news articles, we nd signi cant correlations between Reuters sentiment and stock returns. We show with vector autoregression and error correction models that sentiment can explain and predict changes...

Executive summary. Some say the long-run outlook for U.S. stocks is poor (even " dead ") given the backdrop of muted economic growth, already-high profit margins, elevated government debt levels, and low interest rates. Others take a rosier view, citing attractive valuations and a wide spread between stock earnings yields and Treasury bond yields as reason to anticipate U.S. stock returns of 8%...