Buggy Creek (BCR) virus is an arthropod-borne alphavirus that is naturally transmitted to its vertebrate host the cliff swallow (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) by an invertebrate vector, namely the cimicid swallow bug (Oeciacus vicarius). We examined how the prevalence of the virus varied with the group size of both its vector and host. The study was conducted in southwestern Nebraska where cliff sw...

I present a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model that enables early and accurate prediction of U.S. presidential election outcomes at the state level. The method systematically combines information from historical forecasting models in real time with results from the large number of state-level opinion surveys that are released publicly during the campaign. The result is a set of forecasts that a...

Cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) were inoculated with differing doses of West Nile virus (WNV) to evaluate their potential role as reservoir hosts in nature. Swallows often nest in large colonies in habitats and months associated with high mosquito abundance and early WNV transmission in North America. Additionally, cliff swallow diet consists of insects, including mosquitoes, leading ...

SourceForge is a valuable source of software artifact data for researchers who study project evolution and developer behavior. However, the data exhibit patterns that may bias temporal analyses. Most notable are cliff walls in project source code repository timelines, which indicate large commits that are out of character for the given project. These cliff walls often hide significant periods o...

Abstract This paper offers a more nuanced analysis of employee promotion decisions; specifically, how they are affected by firm size, gender and stages within the business cycle. Drawing on data from Portugal, we find that during times adverse macroeconomic conditions, prospects in all firms decline. Within large firms, women likely to be promoted economic downturns, reflecting ‘glass cliff’ hy...

Invasive species often display different patterns of parasite burden and virulence compared to their native counterparts. These differences may be the result of variability in host-parasite co-evolutionary relationships, the occurrence of novel host-parasite encounters, or possibly innate differences in physiological responses to infection between invasive and native hosts. Here we examine the ...