this paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic instability and private investment of the iranian economy. the study uses a trivariate var(2)-garch(1,1)-in-mean with diagonal bekk approach to proxied inflation and exchange rate uncertainties as the main indicators of macroeconomic instability. moreover, bounds testing approach to level relationship applied to investigate the long...

In the perspective of oil-importers, this paper considers an extension of the Value at Risk approach incorporated with timevarying conditional volatility model to trace the actual dynamic risk of regional oil-importing portfolio caused by the country risk volatility. With an application to oil economies in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) region, empirical results show that the country portfolio r...

We consider conditions for strict stationarity and ergodicity of a class multivariate BEKK processes $(X_t : t=1,2,\ldots )$ study the tail behavior associated stationary distributions. Specifically, we BEKK-ARCH where innovations are assumed to be Gaussian finite number lagged $X_t$ ’s may load into conditional covariance matrix . By exploiting that have stochastic recurrence equation represen...

The volatility of meat prices affects the accessibility and even food security some consumers in Turkey. This study analyses selected livestock a major feed component, wheat, as well exchange rate domestic currency Turkey because imports augmented live calf sheep supply. analysis applies 470 price observations from January 2005 to October 2019 for each following series: calf, sheep, Turkish lir...

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of net portfolio flows, namely net equity and net bond flows, as well as their dynamic linkages. Specifically, a bivariate VAR GARCH-BEKK-in-mean model is estimated using bilateral monthly data for the US visa-vis Australia, Canada, the euro area, Japan, Sweden, and the UK over the period 1988:012011:12. The res...

This paper proposes a constrained nonlinear programming view of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) volatility estimation models in financial econometrics. These models are usually presented to the reader as unconstrained optimization models with recursive terms in the literature, whereas they actually fall into the domain of nonconvex nonlinear programming. Our re...

Quasi maximum likelihood estimation and inference in multivariate volatility models remains a challenging computational task if, for example, the dimension is high. One of the reasons is that typically numerical procedures are used to compute the score and the Hessian, and often they are numerically unstable. We provide analytical formulae for the score and the Hessian and show in a simulation ...