Intermittent nature of wind power faced ISO and power producers with new challenges. Wind power uncertainty has increased the required reserve capacity and deployment reserve. Consequently, large-scale wind power generation increases ISO costs and consequently reserve prices. On the other hand, since wind power producers are price taker, large-scale wind power generation decreases residual dema...

Accurate wind speed forecasting is becoming increasingly important to improve and optimize renewable wind power generation. Particularly, reliable short-term wind speed prediction can enable model predictive control of wind turbines and real-time optimization of wind farm operation. However, this task remains challenging due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty of wind speed....

The operation planning problem encounters several uncertainties in terms of the power system’s parameters such as load, operating reserve and wind power generation. The modeling of those uncertainties is an important issue in power system operation. The system operators can implement different approaches to manage these uncertainties such as stochastic and fuzzy methods. In this paper, new ...

There is uncertainty in the performance of wind energy installations due to unknowns in the local wind environment, machine response to the environment, and the durability of materials. Some of the unknowns are inherently independent from machine to machine while other uncertainties are common to the entire fleet equally. The FAROW computer software for fatigue and reliability of wind turbines ...

This paper presents a method for evaluation of investments in small-scale wind power under uncertainty. It is assumed that the price of electricity is uncertain and that an owner of a property with wind resources has a deferrable opportunity to invest in one wind power turbine within a capacity range. The model evaluates investment in a set of projects with different capacity. It is assumed tha...

Utilizing capacitor banks is very conventional in distribution network in order for local compensation of reactive power. This will be more important considering uncertainties including wind generation and loads uncertainty. Harmonics and non-linear loads are other challenges in power system which complicates the capacitor placement problem. Thus, uncertainty and network harmonics have been con...

submitted to the EWEA 2015 Annual Event. 17 20 November 2015 | Porte de Versailles Pavillon 1, Paris, France Uncertainty of Power Production Predictions of Stationary Wind Farm Models Juan P. Murcia, PhD. Student, Department of Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Pierre E. Réthoré, Senior Researcher, Department of Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Anand Natarajan, Senior Sci...

This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the d...

........................................................................................................................................ 4 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 5 Background: The GEC Study .........................................................................................

The aim of the study is an uncertainty analysis of an air dispersion model[ The model used is described in NRPB!R80 "Clarke\ 0868#\ a model for short and medium range dispersion of radionuclides released into the atmosphere[ Uncertainties in the model predictions arise both from the uncertainty of the input variables and the model simpli_cations\ resulting in parameter uncertainty[ The uncertai...