This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each...

A novel multi-objective simulation-optimization (S-O) framework for flood mitigation in a river-reservoir system with multiple reservoirs and control points is proposed. Different combinations of objectives regarding flood mitigation in one or more of the reservoirs and/or one or more of the control points can be specified within the framework, namely, (1) maximizing the flood releases from the...

Introduction Coastal floods account for a large proportion of the damage to life and property due to natural disasters world-wide. Out of the 15 greatest natural disasters in the world in terms of monetary losses between 2004 and 2008, 14 were coastal (Kron 2008). However, despite the enormity of a particular flood event, people often return to a flood-prone area after a disaster (Cigler 2007; ...

Sensitivity analysis of flood damage calculations for the river Rhine Contents

The higher frequency of severe flood events in Switzerland in recent decades has given fresh impetus to the study of flood patterns and their possible forcing mechanisms, particularly in mountain environments. This paper presents a new index of summer flood damage that considers severe and catastrophic summer floods in Switzerland between 1800 and 2009, and explores the influence of external fo...

Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flo...

Almost two centuries of human interventions at the Upper Rhine to adapt the river systems to led to a serious increase of the flood risk and potential damage downstream. In 1982, the two riparian countries, Germany and France, agreed to re-establish the former protection level against a once-in-200-years flood, with Germany taking most of the workload. This can be considered as the starting poi...

It is widely accepted that sustainable development is the development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. However, the question of how to apply this principle to flood management remains insufficiently answered. This article outlines a new strategic concept termed as “Flood Sharing” as a means toward sustainable flo...

This paper provides a case study of a method to estimate the value of additional information, before its acquisition, to aid decision making in the face of uncertainty. The approach employs conditional simulation in a Monte Carlo framework to conduct a Bayesian assessment of the value of information in an explicitly spatial setting. This paper demonstrates the procedure as applied by a hypothet...