that restrict trade between countries in agricultural commodities. Many of these policies are now subject to important disciplines under the 1994 GATT agreement that is administered by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The paper is organized as follows. First, tariffs, import quotas, and tariff rate quotas are discussed. Then, a series of non-tariff barriers to trade are examined, including v...

â â â  â â â  abstract â  using a structural var with block exogeneity, diagonality and identifying restrictions, this paper analyzes: first, the macroeconomic linkages among the oil price, u.s. output, interest rate, money supply, general price level and exchange rate and second, the relationships of the macroeconomic variables with the price indices of ten international nonfuel commodity grou...

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following ec...

This study aims to examine the impact of the China–ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) on China’s international agricultural trade and its regional agricultural development, using the Global Trade Analysis Project model and the China Agricultural Decision Support System. Our analysis showed that: (i) CAFTA will improve resource allocation efficiencies for both China and ASEAN and will promote bilater...

this study employs a gmdh neural network model, which has high capability in recognition of complicated non-linear trends especially with small samples, for modeling and predicting iranian gdp growth. first a fundamental model containing 7 independent variables together with dependent variable is designed and then by using deductive process and omission of one variable at a time, a total of 18 ...

Using a structural VAR with block exogeneity, diagonality and identifying restrictions, this paper analyzes: first, the macroeconomic linkages among the oil price, U.S. output, interest rate, money supply, general price level and exchange rate and second, the relationships of the macroeconomic variables with the price indices of ten international nonfuel commodity groups. By assuming the block ...

Oil sector is the most effective sector in these countries. Oil is the most important product that world industries use as the cheapest energy. The price of oil depends on the world’s supply and demand and many economic, political and geographical variables. This is the reason why the price of oil has fluctuations. The fluctuations in oil price lead to fluctuate in the oil revenues of the membe...