How important are oil price fluctuations and oil price volatility on equity market performance? What are the policy implications if volatility turns out to be significant? We assess this issue in an economics/finance nexus for Korea using a VEC model including interest rates, economic activity, real stock returns, real oil prices and oil price volatility. Results indicate the dominance of oil p...

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between oil price changes and output in a group of oil exporting countries. The dynamics of business cycles in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela and Qatar are modeled by alternative regime switching models. We show that the extension of uni-variate Markov Switching model in order to include oil revenue improves dating busi...

In practice, central banks have been confronted with a trade-o¤ between stabilising in‡ation and output when dealing with rising oil prices. This contrasts with the result in the standard New Keynesian model that ensuring complete price stability is the optimal thing to do, even when an oil shock leads to large output drops. To reconcile this apparent contradiction, this paper investigates how ...

We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following uptur...

This study analyzes factors affecting the price of South Korea’s Certified Emission Reduction (CER) using statistical methods. CER refers to the transaction price for the amount of carbon emitted. Analysis of results found a co-integration relationship among the price of South Korea’s CER, oil price (WTI), and South Korea’s maximum electric power demand, which means that there is a long-term re...

According to “Hotelling rule” price of an “exhaustible resource” exceeds its marginal cost of production in perfect competition equilibrium by amount equal to the opportunity cost of depleting the resource now rather than next periods. This cost is called “scarcity rent”. Oil price exceeds its marginal extraction costs significantly. This can be attributed two different sources: effect of scarc...

in this paper, a model based on gmdh type neural network, is used to predict gas price in the spot market while using oil spot market price, gas spot market price, gas future market price, oil future market price and average temperature of the weather. the results suggest that gmdh neural network model, according to the root mean squared error (rmse) and direction statistics (dstat) statistics ...

This paper presents an oil price cartel model. The aggregate reaction functions for non-cartel producers and for substitute suppliers are included. The former group acts as a price-taker, while the latter expects oil prices in production of its non-oil energy resources. This expectation about prices affects a cartel’s oil demand and, thus, gives intertemporal price elasticities It turns out tha...