We consider the problem of model selection in vector autoregressive model with Normal innovation. Tests such as Vuong's and Cox's tests are provided for order and model selection, i.e. for selecting the order and a suitable subset of regressors, in vector autoregressive model. We propose a test as a modified log-likelihood ratio test for selecting subsets of regressors. The Europe oil prices, ...

This paper analyzes qualitatively the impact of changes in the level and variability of the US dollar / EURO exchange rate on the real GDP growth rate and trade balance positions of three MENA countries, namely Egypt, Jordan and Morocco. First, the analytical framework is presented by developing explicit relationships between (1) output growth and the variability of the nominal exchange rate; (...

This paper describes a method for calculating daily realtime estimates of the current state of the U.S. economy. The estimates are computed from data on scheduled U.S. macroeconomic announcements using an econometric model that allows for variable reporting lags, temporal aggregation, and other complications in the data. The model can be applied to find real-time estimates of GDP, inflation, un...

The Stock–Watson coincident index and its subsequent extensions assume a static linear one-factor model for the component indicators. Such assumption is restrictive in practice, however, with as few as four indicators. In fact, such assumption is unnecessary if one poses the index construction problem as optimal prediction of latent monthly real GDP. This paper estimates a VAR model for latent ...

Changes in the levels of fucosylation regulate the biological phenotype of cancer cells and a specific fucosylation, such as fucosylated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP-L3) has been clinically used as a tumor marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, detailed molecular mechanisms that explain the increased fucosylation in HCC remain unknown despite 10 years of study by these researchers. Fucos...

1 Abstract. Estimates of the consequences of human-made and natural disasters are crucial for informing decision making by both public and private actors. The 9/11 attack stands out as a particularly important event whose consequences need to be well understood. This study evaluates the macroeconomic impacts of the 9/11 attack on U.S. real GDP growth and the unemployment rate by examining how f...