In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock’s return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk in real-time, recurrent bubbles and crashes can arise. These effect are stronger when agents allow ...

A dynamic model of financial markets with learning and strategy adoption is demonstrated to produce episodes of market failure. Traders engage in learning to improve their understanding of the relationship between observed prices and future payoffs. Traders also choose between strategies based on fundamental research or on extracting information from market data. The two evolutionary processes ...

A dynamic model with learning and adaptation captures the evolution in trader beliefs and trading strategies. Through a process of learning and observation, traders improve their understanding of the market. Traders also engage in a process of adaptation by switching between trading strategies based on past performance. The asymptotic properties are derived analytically, demonstrating that conv...

A simple example shows that equilibria can fail to exist in second price (Vickrey) and English auctions when there are both common and private components to bidders' valuations and private information is held on both dimensions. The example shows that equilibrium only exists in the extremes of pure private and pure common values, and that existence in standard models is not robust to a slight p...

ABSTRACT I develop a structural model to quantify the costs of tax avoidance. In model, firm trades off savings with audit risk, financial reporting considerations, and operational frictions imposed by avoidance, last which label as nontax costs. The estimated parameters suggest costs, are difficult observe, decrease pretax income 6.4 percent or $58 million per firm-year. large magnitude this e...

We develop a deep learning model to detect emotions embedded in press conferences after the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and examine influence of detected on financial markets. find that, controlling for Reserve’s actions sentiment policy texts, positive tone voices Reserve chairs leads significant increases share prices. Other variables also respond vocal cues from chairs. Hence, how...

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-lasting dynamic relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and government bond spreads (GBS), with regard sovereign risk. practical focus evaluate whether CDS market effectively leading or lagging in risk price discovery process during last decade monetary easing. analysis extends all “sensitive” countries Eurozone, so-called “PII...

This study examines asymmetric and the lag effects of oil price, gas exchange rate on stock performance Malaysian sub-industries. Using company-level data multi factor asset pricing models, this found that rate, common systematic risk factors such as market, size, book-to-market have significant sub-industries, but these exposures remain heterogeneous. Oil price show strong asymmetrical impacts...

Synchronization of estrus and ovulation are of paramount importance in modern livestock improvement programs. These methods are critical for assisted reproduction technologies, including artificial insemination and embryo transfer, that can increase productivity. In the current study, subcutaneous implants containing norgestomet were placed for long (14 days), medium (9 days), and short (5 days...