In this paper, we attempt to analyze currency crises within the decision theory framework. In this regard, we employ fuzzy system modeling with fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering to develop perception based decision matrix. We try to build a prescriptive model in order to determine the best approximate reasoning schemas. We use the underlying behavior of the market participants during the crisis. W...

To examine the asymmetry of financial data in detail, we have considered both the tail dependence with diverse copulas and Jung et al.’s [8] directional dependence by copula. From the empirical study in this paper, we have found that the tail dependence by Patton’s [11] modified symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula function did not show the asymmetry property sufficiently because there is no tail dep...

Developing a stable early warning system (EWS) model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in our analysis; we...

In this paper we introduce a new method to describe dynamical patterns of the real exchange rate movements time series and to analyze contagion in currency crisis. The method combines the tools of Symbolic Time Series Analysis [18] with the nearest neighbor single linkage clustering algorithm [34]. Data symbolization allows to obtain a metric distance between two different time series that is u...

One of the most controversial issues in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis has been the appropriate response of monetary policy to a sharp decline in the value of some currencies. In this paper, we empirically examine the effects on Asian exchange rates of sharply higher interest rates during the Asian financial crisis. Taking account of the currency contagion effect, our results indic...

purpose: document delivery scheme for the libraries of the ministry of science, research and technology was launched in 1999 due to currency budget crisis. the main purpose of this paper is to investigate how the above document delivery service was launched, preformed and finally stopped. method: the current study applied questionnaire and interview surveys for studying different aspects of the...

A growing empirical literature studies determinants of the probability of a currency crisis, often searching for a combination of indicators to provide an early warning system (EWS). The existing work frequently relies on discrete choice specifications, such as probits, that do not incorporate the time dimension of the occurrence of currency crises and that are not derived from an underlying be...

As the July presidential election nears, analysts and investors are growing more vocal about whether Mexico might once again be rocked by a major economic crisis, as has been the case at the close of each six-year presidential term since 1976. According to Goldman Sachs, the probability of Mexico facing a currency crisis in the near future has increased by one-third during the past two months. ...

This survey discusses theoretical models of speculative attack and currency crises, and reviews the empirical evidence. The paper outlines the correspondence of the models to different cases of crisis (e.g. Latin American crises, the ERM breakdown, and the recent Asian crisis), and points to gaps in the theoretical literature for explaining the Asian crisis. The large economic costs resulting f...