Many emerging economies have experienced current account reversals followed by large declines in economic activity. These sudden stops are reflected in their real interest rates, which alternate between tranquil times, when the level is relatively low and stable, and crises, during which interest rates are higher and more volatile. We embed an estimated regime switching process of interest rate...

Financial crises are not uncommon and their consequences are often severe, thus they constitute an important and interesting field of economics research. In the 1990s alone, four waves of financial crises occurred around the world: the European ERM crisis in 1992-1993 – which also hit a number of non-ERM currencies like the Finnish markka, the Mexican Peso crisis in 1994-1995, the Asian crisis ...

One of the striking characteristics of the recent currency crises in East Asia is the sharp reductions in output that followed depreciations. This paper draws on an earlier literature on contractionary depreciations to motivate an empirical model of the relationship between exchange rate and output fluctuations in a panel of six East Asian economies. There is evidence of a negative relationship...

In addition to their direct effects, episodes of financial instability may decrease investor confidence. Measuring the impact of a crisis on investor confidence is complicated by the fact that it is difficult to disentangle the effect of investor confidence from coincident direct effects of the crisis. In order to isolate the effects of financial crises on investor confidence, we study the inve...

This paper examines the impact of political uncertainty on the recent financial crises in emerging markets. By examining political election cycles, we find that eight out of nine of the recent financial crises happened during periods of political election and transition. Using a combination of probit and switching regression analysis, we find that there is a significant relationship between pol...

Often, systemic banking crises initiate from one or more banks and affect countries by rapid spreading in the banking network, financial markets and economy of countries. According to Reinhart & Rogoff (2009) in the book titled "This time is Different," financial crises are pointed as an equal opportunity menace for high-income countries and emerging markets. Although The International Mo...

There were hardly any banking crises between 1939 and 1971, so their later reemergence came as a surprise. Central bank supervisors responded practically by discovering and encouraging the adoption of current best practice in risk management by individual banks, without much theoretical input, whereas economists have mostly focused on models which abstract from default. But default is central t...

Recent emerging market crises have emphasized the fluctuating character of trade’s reaction after financial crises, in contradiction with the apparently simple theoretical impact of such events on trade, which is essentially described by the well-known J-curve mechanism.. We use a gravity-like equation to assess the impact of these events on bilateral sectoral trade and reveal the elements whic...

This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy (monetary and fiscal) on output growth during financial crises characterized by a “sudden stop” in net capital inflows in developing and emerging market economies. We investigate 83 sudden stop crises in 77 countries over 1982-2003 using a baseline empirical model to control for the various determinants of output losses during sudden...

Recent studies have conjectured that there may be a link between financial liberalization and financial instability in emerging economies. Most of these studies, however, do not investigate whether emerging economies are becoming structurally more vulnerable to currency and banking crises. In this paper, we argue that emerging economies are systematically becoming more susceptible to both curre...