We develop an unobserved components approach to study surveys of forecasts containing multiple forecast horizons. Under the assumption that forecasters optimally update their beliefs about past, current and future state variables as new information arrives, we use our model to extract information on the degree of predictability of the state variable and the importance of measurement errors in t...

Consensus forecasts are ine¢ cient. The weight placed on new information re‡ects the choices of the underlying individual forecasters— whose new information is noisier individually than in aggregate— so that the consensus forecast overweights older information. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper …nds that: consensus forecasts are ine¢ cie...

It is essential to consider the acceptable threshold in the assessment of a hydrological model because of the scarcity of research in the hydrology community and errors do not necessarily cause risk. Two forecast errors, including rainfall forecast error and peak flood forecast error, have been studied based on the reliability theory. The first order second moment (FOSM) and bound methods are u...

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the hargreaves-samani (hs) equation, which estimates reference evapotranspiration (et0) using only temperature as input, should be most suitable for et0 prediction based on weather forecasting data. in the current study, the hs equation is calibrated with daily et0 by the penman-monteith equation, and is evaluated to check the possibility of predicting daily et0 based on weather forecast data. ...

W correlate analysts’ forecast errors with temporal variation in investor sentiment. We find that when sentiment is high, analysts’ forecasts of one-year-ahead earnings and long-term earnings growth are relatively more optimistic for “uncertain” or “difficult-to-value” firms. Adding these forecast errors to a regression of stock returns on sentiment absorbs a sizable fraction of the explanatory...

Analysing the evolution of ensemble forecast spread, which represents the growth of errors in the initial field and therefore uncertainty of forecasts for subsequent fields, is useful for identifying particular circulation features that can impact the forecast skill of a subsequent phenomenon of interest. In this study, the trigger of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event observed in...

In this study a new type of ensemble forecast assimilation technique is developed in order to improve the forecast skill in the nonlinear dynamical system. The forecast assimilation is an analysis technique in which a true value contained in each ensemble forecast is accumulated into a single assimilated forecast such as a data assimilation. For the experiments, we used a Lorenz model, and a Ka...

The glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GPD) gene of Lentinus edodes was isolated from a genomic DNA library and cDNA corresponding to this gene was isolated from a mycelium cDNA library. The L. edodes GPD gene was found to encode a 337-aa protein. By comparison of the cDNA and genomic DNA sequences, the presence of eight introns in the GPD gene was confirmed. The putative amino acid sequ...