In this paper, we use stochastic dynamic programming to model the choice of a municipality which has to design an optimal waste management program under uncertainty about the price of recyclables in the secondary market. The municipality can, by undertaking an irreversible investment, adopt a ‡exible program which integrates the existing land…ll strategy with recycling, keeping the option to sw...

This study is framed in theories of illness uncertainty (Babrow, A. S., 2007, Problematic integration theory. In B. B. Whaley & W. Samter (Eds.), Explaining communication: Contemporary theories and exemplars (pp. 181-200). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum; Babrow & Matthias, 2009; Brashers, D. E., 2007, A theory of communication and uncertainty management. In B. B. Whaley & W. Samter (Eds.), Explaining comm...

We solve an agent’s optimization problem of meeting demands for cash over time with cash deposited in bank or invested in stock. The stock pays dividends and uncertain capital gains, and a commission is incurred in buying and selling of stock. We use a stochastic maximum principle to obtain explicitly the optimal transaction policy.

In biology and medicine, as well as in many other domains, imperfect knowledge cannot be avoided. It is difficult to construct automatic systems to provide classification or pattern recognition tools or help specialists make a decision. There exist two kinds of difficulties: (1) those related to the type of imperfection we have to consider (partial information, uncertainties, inaccuracies) and ...

This paper presents an overview of various aspects of uncertainty quantification and management in prognostics and systems health management. Prognostics deals with predicting possible future failures in different types of engineering systems. It is almost practically impossible to precisely predict future events; therefore, it is necessary to account for the different sources of uncertainty th...

this paper explains a model for analyzing and measuring the propagation of order amplifications (i.e. bullwhip effect) for a single-product supply network topology considering exogenous uncertainty and linear and time-invariant inventory management policies for network entities. the stream of orders placed by each entity of the network is characterized assuming customer demand is ergodic. in fa...

Systematic consideration of uncertainty in data, model structure, and other factors is generally unaddressed in most Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) calculations. Our previous studies developed the Management Objectives Constrained Analysis of Uncertainty (MOCAU) approach as an uncertainty analysis technique specifically for watershed water quality models, based on a synthetic case. In this stu...

abstract: in most industries the cost of raw materials and component parts constitutes almost 60% percent of cost of a product (in some industries up to 80%). in this situation, proper sourcing can play a key role in an organization's efficiency and effectiveness, because it has a direct effect on cost reduction, profitability and flexibility of a company. in this paper, determining the op...