This paper proposes an econometric evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the euro area, under a particular specification of the adaptive learning hypothesis. The key assumption is that agents’ perceived law of motion is a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, whose coefficients are updated by maximum likelihood estimation as the information set increases over time. Each time new...

We extend a Kalman filter model for count data to reflect observations irregularly spaced in time. The model is applied to estimate risk of rare events; bycatch of endangered leatherback turtles in a swordfish fishery off Oregon and California. Incidental takes of turtles are modeled as a Poisson process. The results suggest that take risk is better estimated by regarding the entire history of ...

K e y w o r d s: prediction, model comparison, density forecasting, inflation, VAR models, shrinkage. J E L Classification: E31, E37, C53, C32.

The modified nucleoside 2-thiocytidine (s(2)C) has so far been found in tRNA from organisms belonging to the phylogenetic domains Archaea and Bacteria. In the bacteria Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium, s(2)C is present in position 32 of only four tRNA species-, and. An in-frame deletion of an S. enterica gene (designated ttcA, for "two-thio-cytidine") was constructed...

We examine theoretically the emergence of participatory comanagement agreements that share between state and user the management of resources and the benefits from use. Going beyond useruser interactions, our state-user model addresses a critical question—when will comanagement arise?— in order to consider the right baseline for evaluating comanagement’s forest and welfare impacts. We then comp...

In this paper we develop a bioeconomic model of timber harvesting that includes dynamic interactions between mountain pine beetle (MPB) and a lodgepole pine forest with a disaggregated size structure. The model is used to investigate the consequences of alternative public management strategies on forest dynamics in the presence of MPB outbreaks. Management practices similar to those commonly pr...