Goebel et al. [4] presented a unified decomposition of ensemble loss for explaining ensemble performance. They considered democratic voting schemes with uniform weights, where the various base classifiers each can vote for a single class once only. In this article, we generalize their decomposition to cover weighted, probabilistic voting schemes and non-uniform (progressive) voting schemes. Emp...

We consider how to make probability forecasts of binary labels. Our main mathematical result is that for any continuous gambling strategy used for detecting disagreement between the forecasts and the actual labels, there exists a forecasting strategy whose forecasts are ideal as far as this gambling strategy is concerned. A forecasting strategy obtained in this way from a gambling strategy demo...

Abstract Road traffic accidents (RTA) are commonly encountered incidents that can cause injuries, death, and property damage to members of society. Ethiopia is one the highest incident rates road accidents. Report Transport Communication from 2012 2014, shows an increment in number Ethiopia. Amhara region accounted for 27.3% total accident-related deaths during year 2008/9, which share among al...

Prediction markets provide an efficient means to assess uncertain quantities from forecasters. Traditional and competitive strictly proper scoring rules have been shown to incentivize players to provide truthful probabilistic forecasts. However, we show that when those players can cooperate, these mechanisms can instead discourage them from reporting what they really believe. When players with ...

The atmospheric transport and ground deposition of radioactive isotopes 131I and 137Cs during and after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident (March 2011) are investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. The aim is to assess the skill of WRF in simulating these processes and the sensitivity of the model’s performance to various parame...

This chapter covers different approaches that may be taken when building an ensemble method, through studying specific examples of each approach from research conductded by the author. A method called Negative Correlation Learning illustrates a decision level combination approach with individual calssifiers trained co-operatively. The Model level combination paradigm is illustrated via a tree c...

The paper introduces a modified version of the classical Coupon Collector’s Problem entailing exchanges and cooperation between multiple players. Results of the development show that, within a proper Markov framework, the complexity of the Cooperative Multiplayer Coupon Collectors’ Problem can be attacked with an eye to the modeling of social strategies and community behaviors. The cost of coop...

We formulate the problem of creating an optimal classifier ensemble as an optimization problem and apply genetic algorithms to the problem. A pool of 25 individual classifiers is created by training SVM-based classifiers on various features and by varying SVM kernel parameters. A subset of the classifiers selected from the above classifier pool, generated using the proposed optimization techniq...

In recent years, authors have focused on modeling and forecasting volatility in financial series it is crucial for the characterization of markets, portfolio optimization and asset valuation. One of the most used methods to forecast market volatility is the linear regression. Nonetheless, the errors in prediction using this approach are often quite high. Hence, continued research is conducted t...