This paper develops optimal tests for model selection between two nested models in the presence of underlying parameter instability. These are joint tests for both parameter instability and a null hypothesis on a subset of the parameters. They modify the existing tests for parameter instability to allow the parameter vector to be unknown. These tests statistics are useful if one is interested i...

this paper estimates the determinants of inflation in iran using a linear and non- linear regression model over the period 1959-2008. in the model specification, the conventional variables (liquidity, production and exchange rate) as well as positive and negative oil revenue shocks, monetary disequilibrium, and demand gap are considered. the results show that nonlinear time series regression mo...

This paper – which takes into consideration overall experience with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as well improvements made to this measure inflation since 2003 finds that HICP continues fulfil prerequisites for index underlying ECB’s definition price stability. Nonetheless, there is scope enhancing HICP, especially by including owner-occupied housing (OOH) using net acquisitio...

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The present paper thoroughly explores second-best efficient allocations in an adverse selection insurance economy. We start from a natural extension of the classical model, assuming less than perfect risk perceptions. We propose first and second welfare theorems, by means of which we describe efficiencyenhancing policies. Notions of weak and strong adverse selection are promising for interpreti...

This paper examines the asymptotic and …nite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy when the models being compared are overlapping in the sense of Vuong (1989). Two models are overlapping when the true model contains just a subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out-of-sample version of the two-step ...