In this article, we analyze the application of options contract in the special commodity supply chain such as fresh agricultural products. This problem is discussed from the point of the retailer. When spot market and future market are both available, we discuss how the retailer chooses the optimal production. Furthermore, overconfidence is introduced to the supply chain of the fresh agricultur...

The status-enhancement theory of overconfidence proposes that overconfidence pervades self-judgment because it helps people attain higher social status. Prior work has found that highly confident individuals attained higher status regardless of whether their confidence was justified by actual ability (Anderson, Brion, Moore, & Kennedy, 2012). However, those initial findings were observed in con...

Psychologists have consistently documented people’s tendency to be overconfident about their own ability. We interpret workers’ confidence in their own skills as their morale, and investigate the implication of worker overconfidence on the firm’s optimal wage-setting policies. In our model, a wage contract both provides incentives and conveys to the worker the firm’s opinion about her ability, ...

Corporate directors are influenced by overconfidence, which is one of the personality traits of individuals; it may take irrational decisions that will have a significant impact on the company's performance in the long run. The purpose of this paper is to validate and compare the Naive Bayesian Classification algorithm and probit regression in the prediction of Management's overconfident at pre...

The purpose of this paper was to explore the relationship between characteristics chief executive officer (CEO) and corporate social responsibility (CSR) banks operating in Middle East North African (MENA) countries. study hypotheses tested using a multiple linear regression model by examining data from sample 97 Islamic MENA region 2015 2019. results were robustly checked findings indicated th...

We conduct a carefully designed random-assignment experiment to investigate whether negative affect impacts overconfidence. Our result indicates that, compared to neutralaffect, fear and sadness significantly increase overconfidence. All decisions were incentivized, and the result is robust to various specification checks. Further, our result has implications for the role of emotions in economi...

E conomists have been concerned about issues of overconfidence at least since Adam Smith (1776, Book I, Chapter X), who wrote in The Wealth of Nations: “The over-weening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities, is an ancient evil remarked by the philosophers and moralists of all ages.” Titans of modern economics have had similar reactions to the “ancient evil.” Daniel ...

Overconfidence has long been noted by historians and political scientists as a major cause of war. However, the origins of such overconfidence, and sources of variation, remain poorly understood. Mounting empirical studies now show that mentally healthy people tend to exhibit psychological biases that encourage optimism, collectively known as 'positive illusions'. Positive illusions are thought...