The futures market in West Texas Intermediate crude oil was introduced in 1983 with a posted-price cash market in which the posted price changed a few times a year. By 2002, the cash price changed almost daily. Evidence from producers’ invoices shows that this initially low frequency of price changes reflects transactions prices. Using experiments, we show that the introduction of a futures mar...

This study was aimed to determining a fitted forecasting method for the of crude palm oil prices at international and domestic market as well fresh fruit bunch collecting merchant farmer level in Bengkulu Province by considering three models, namely, double exponential smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving average, classical decomposition. The data used were monthly world markets from Jan...

With the rapidly increasing global energy needs, offshore oil production has become an attractive source of energy. Supplying offshore oil production installations is a complex logistics problem that hinges on many factors with significant uncertainties. So, it is critical to provide the necessary supplies and services without interruption. In a typical offshore oil production effort, oil compa...

the price of oil plays an important role in the global economy and is an important factor influencing the government and commercial sectors. because of increasing importance of oil in financial markets, oil price predictions have always been an important subject for the researchers in economics, and other economic agents. this paper tries to study the behavior of crude oil prices based on smoot...

This paper aims at providing an in-depth analysis of forecasting ability different GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) models and finding the best model for VaR estimation crude oil. Analysis performance is done using Kupiecs POF test, Christoffersens test Backtesting Loss Function. Crude oil one most important fuel sources has contributed to over a third world’s e...

In this study, linear and nonlinear methods were used to model forecasting performances on the daily crude oil production data of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). The linear model considered here is the random walk with drift, while the nonlinear model is the feed forward neural network model. The results indicate that nonlinear methods have better forecasting performance gre...