This paper investigates the response of US stock market uncertainty to monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank. It can be shown that monetary policy signifi cantly Granger-causes stock market confi dence. By using monthly closing prices of the V IX as a stock market uncertainty proxy and a copula-based Markov approach the stable nonlinear relation between confi dence and uncertainty is demo...

This paper revisits the uncovered interest parity relation. It supplements existing work in two ways: It focuses on long instead of short-term interest rates, and, related to that, employs exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) instead of actual outcomes. Among the major ̄oating currencies over the period 1975± 1997, the paper cannot support the notion of further ...

Enders and Granger provide critical values to test the null hypothesis of a unit-root against the alternative of threshold adjustment. However, in obtaining their critical values, Enders and Granger did not use a consistent estimate of the threshold nor did they use a lag-augmented data generating process. This note remedies both of these problems. The power of the test statistics using the con...

Trading frictions in financial markets affect more long-term than short-term bonds, generating an upward-sloping yield curve. Long-term financing is expensive economies with higher trading so firms choose to borrow and invest shorter horizons lower productivity projects. The theory guides a new identification of the slope liquidity spread data. We measure calibrate model for United States, coun...

The challenge for stabilization policy presented by the COVID-19 pandemic stems above all from disruption of circular flow payments, resulting in a failure what Keynes (1936) calls “effective demand.” As consequence, economic activity many sectors can be inefficiently low, and interest-rate cannot eliminate distortions—not because limit on extent to which interest rates reduced, but reductions ...

We document heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) across household characteristics relevant understanding heterogeneous agent models and monetary policy transmission. find a strong negative relationship between liquid wealth MPC. show that predicts MPC closely for every other characteristic we look at. use new empirical method overcomes sources of bias found existing literat...

We study what happens to identified shocks and dynamic responses when the data generating process features q disturbances but 1 < variables are used in an empirical model. Identified linear combinations of current past values all structural do not necessarily combine same type. Theory-based restrictions may be insufficient obtain dynamics. revisit evidence regarding transmission house price ...

Commonly used instruments for the identification of monetary policy disturbances are likely to combine true shock with information about state economy due disclosed through action. We show that this signaling effect can give rise empirical puzzles reported in literature, and propose a new high-frequency instrument shocks accounts informational rigidities. find tightening is unequivocally contra...

This paper studies how the impact of monetary policy depends on distribution savings from refinancing mortgages. We show that efficacy is state dependent, varying in a systematic way with pool potential refinancing. construct quantitative dynamic life-cycle model accounts for our findings and use it to study response consumption change mortgage rates These effects are strongly dependent. also l...