In this paper, we analyse secular stagnation in the eurozone. We adopt a core-periphery perspective and whether 2007–2008 financial crisis triggered off diverging dynamics growth potential of core peripheral eurozone countries. find that affects whole but is much more serious concern periphery. Among components GDP, NAIRU particular has diverged since 2008. increase strongly related to demand-s...

In my remarks, I will offer a bridge from today’s discussion of structural changes to the implications for monetary policy, the subject of tomorrow’s agenda. In my view, the most important challenges to monetary policy related to structural change in this episode arise from possible changes in aggregate supply specifically in the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) and in tr...

This paper provides an introduction to the TRYM model of the Australian economy used for macro-economic analysis by the Australian Treasury. It provides a brief introduction to the design and overall structure of the model and the model's properties. The model works at a highly aggregated level and hence both demand and supply side responses need to be interpreted with care. The paper uses the ...

Several recent studies have used multivariate unobserved components models to identify the output gap and the NAIRU. A key assumption of these models is that one common cycle component, such as the output gap, drives the cyclical fluctuations in all variables included in the model. This paper also uses the multivariate approach to estimate the euro area output gap and the trends and cycles in o...

We propose a new result that simplifies the evaluation of the marginal likelihood in Gaussian Structural Time Series (STS) models. For this we exploit the statistical properties of STS models and a theorem in Dickey (1968) to obtain the likelihood marginally to all variance parameters. Our strategy applies under inverted gamma-2 prior distributions for the structural shocks variances. In genera...