This paper proposes a nonlinear error-correction model based upon smooth transition regression methodology. The model is speci® ed such that the short-run adjustment toward long-run equilibrium is nonlinear and that the error correction is a smooth function of long-run deviation. Empirical results obtained from estimating M2 money demand in Taiwan support the hypothesis of a nonlinear error-cor...

The presence of nonlinear influences in the relationship between stock returns and the macroeconomy is examined for six countries. The markets chosen are Canada, France, Germany, Japan, U.K. and the U.S. Nonlinearity is accounted for via regime switching using a smooth transition regression (STR) model with the world market return as the transition variable. There is evidence of nonlinearity in...

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in emerging countries in periods of crisis. We study the effect of fiscal policy on economic activity distinguishing between periods of recession and expansion periods. Our goal will be to explore the nonlinear effect of fiscal policy in Asian emerging countries on the activity during periods of crisis. We use the PST...

We introduce a multi-level smooth transition model for a panel of time series, which can be used to examine the presence of common nonlinear business cycle features across many variables. The model is positioned in between a fully pooled model, which imposes such common features, and a fully heterogeneous model, which allows for unrestricted nonlinearity. We introduce a second-stage model linki...