We consider the problem of using simulation to efficiently estimate the win probabilities for participants in a general random knockout tournament. Both of our proposed estimators, one based on the notion of “observed survivals” and the other based on conditional expectation and post-stratification, are highly effective in terms of variance reduction when compared to the raw simulation estimato...

The deeper we look at human genomes, the more unexpected things we find. And increasingly we are surprised by what each of us lacks. In particular, in recent years we have learned that naturally occurring human gene knockouts are prevalent. The results of the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC) now paint a rich and detailed picture of gene redundancy and essentiality in humans (Lek et al., 2016...