in this paper, we examine influence oil shocks on macroeconomic variables and dutch disease phenomena when these variables encountered positive oil revenue shocks. statistical model which is copula approach is used to show when iran's macroeconomic variables encountered positive oil revenue casus dutch disease and oil revenue has non-symmetric influence on the growth economic. in another w...

This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic releases on stock market volatility through a Poisson-Gaussian-GARCH process with time varying jump intensity, which is allowed to respond to such information. It is found that the day of the announcement, per se, has little impact on jump intensities. Employment releases are an exception. However, when macroeconomic surprises are considered, infl...

The paper considers the macroeconomic impact of shocks to agricultural output and of negative and positive price shocks. It is shown that negative price shocks have particularly large externalities: it is estimated that the overall impact of these negative shocks on GDP may well be double their direct impact. In terms of policy, the presence of externalities justifies subsidising the provision ...

Asset pricing theory has long recognized that financial markets compensate investors who are exposed to some components of uncertainty. This is where macroeconomics comes into play. The economy-wide shocks, the primary concern of macroeconomists, by their nature are not diversifiable. Exposures to these shocks cannot be averaged out with exposures to other shocks. Thus, returns on assets that d...

We study the joint dynamics of bond yields and macroeconomic variables in a New-Keynesian small open economy model complemented with a no-arbitrage term structure model. With Canadian data, we are able to study the impact of domestic and foreign (US) shocks on the yield curve. The unconditional variance decomposition of the yield level show that the movement of expected short rates is mainly dr...

This paper examines the dynamic effects of oil price shocks in addition to the aggregate supply and demand shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in four sample economies: Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. We aim to discover whether oil price shocks play a crucial role in explaining output and domestic price fluctuation in small emerging economies after 1990s. We are also keen to assess...

This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas anticipation amplifies volatility in any purely forward-looking model, such as the baseline New Keynesian model, the results are ambiguous when including a backward-looking component. In addition to these theoretical findings, we use the estimated model of Smets and Wouters (2003) to provide numerical evidence t...

Macroeconomic shocks and labour-market institutions jointly determine employment growth and economic performance. The effect of shocks depends on the nature of these institutions and the effect of institutional change depends on the macroeconomic environment. It follows that a given set of institutions may be appropriate in one epoch and not in another. We derive a dynamic model of labour deman...

there are different ideas and opinions about the effects of macroeconomic variables on real and nominal variables. to answer the question of whether changes in macroeconomic variables as a political tool is useful over a business cycle, understanding the effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth is important. in the present study, the bayesian vector autoregresive model and seasonali...