this paper develops an analysis of budget deficit financing in termsof a crowding out or crowding in effect on the activity of the privatesector for the economies of iran and algeria as two mena countries,(because of its economic structures (dependence on oil revenue)) duringthe period 1970-2012 by using cointegration and vector errorcorrection approaches. the analysis confirms the existence of...

among the food products, grains play an important role in the consumption patterns of people, especially in the developing countries. since iran's main source of public dietary energy comes directly from grains, investigating and identifying the determinants of import of these products can be an important step towards food security. most experimental studies consider import of grains as only a ...

This paper investigates the effects of shocks to U.S. monetary policy on the dollar/yen exchange rate, using structural Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods. We compare our estimates of the impulse responses with those based on levels Vector Autoregression. We also compare results from short run and long run restrictions imposed on the structural VECM. We find evidence of overshooting b...

according to the importance of careful review of crude oil market fluctuations on the iranian economy, in this paper a multivariate model of markov switching vector error correction model (have been used). variables such as real gross domestic product in industrial sector, real effective exchange rate, real governmental expenditure, real import, inflation rate and real crude oil price is used t...

In this paper, the effects of oil and gold prices on stock market index are investigated. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model to examine the nonlinear properties of these three variables during the period of January 2003 - December 2014. The Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes representing "deep recession", "mild recession" and ...

abstract exchange rate volatility is one of the effective and ambiguous factors in agricultural products export. regarding the importance of agricultural trade, to avoid single-product economy, the main aim of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on the pistachio export of iran during 1338-1386. for this purpose, exchange rate volatility index was estimated using ...

The aims of the present study are developing a financial stability index (FSI) using banking indices to measure financial stability in Iran, and examining the relationship between financial stability and macroeconomic variables for policymaking. To these ends, we have employed principal-component analysis, out of sample forecasting, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, and V...

Meningkatnya jumlah wisatawan asing datang ke Bali pasca Pandemi COVID-19 mengakibatkan perekonomian Provinsi kembali pulih. yang ramai membuat masyarakat mendapatkan pekerjaan dan menggunakan uang mereka. Sementara itu, tingkat inflasi di mengalami peningkatan pandemi COVID-19. Beberapa penelitian telah dilakukan untuk faktor-faktor mempengaruhi inflasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan melihat hubung...

Background & objectives: Despite the importance and impact of health and education on economic growth in countries, the causal relationship between education and health is important to policymaking. This study aimed to investigate the causality relationship between education and health in the short and long runs using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in Iran. Method: This was an analyt...