This paper examines the valuation of risky projects in a setting where the investor’s probability estimates for future states of nature are ambiguous and where he or she can invest both in a portfolio of projects and securities in financial markets. This setting is relevant to investors who allocate resources to industrial research and development projects or make venture capital investments wh...

The main purpose of this paper is to propose a fuzzy approach for investment project valuation in uncertain environments from the aspect of real options. The traditional approaches to project valuation are based on discounted cash flows (DCF) analysis which provides measures like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). However, DCF-based approaches exhibit two major pitfalls....

This paper analyzes the impact of model complexity on the net present value distribution and the expected default probability of equity investments in project finance. Model complexity is analyzed along two dimensions: simulation complexity and forecast complexity. We aim to identify model elements which are crucial for the valuation of project finance in practice. First, we present a simulatio...

This paper presents the COG-FPOM, a model based on the Fuzzy Pay-Off Method (FPOM). The FPOM is a scenario-based real option valuation method that uses fuzzy numbers as possibility distributions. The paper shows an unexpected result generated by the original FPOM, in which the real option would have a negative value. It further analyses its reasons and suggests a way to overcome it, by using th...

Increasing concerns over environmental degradation have amplified the role of environmental economics and the valuation of non-pecuniary environmental resources as tools of analysis to facilitate the design of policies. To date, however, environmental valuation methods have continued to be unreliable, misleading and contentious as a guide to resource allocations and damage compensations. Damage...

This paper deals with the application of real options methodology on valuation of investment projects. The basic objective of the paper is to present applicative project valuation model, which enables decision-makers to build-up conventional NPV analysis by incorporating key input random variables, by using Monte Carlo simulation, and managerial flexibilities, by defining if-then decision rules...

The main purpose of this paper is to propose a fuzzy approach for investment project valuation in uncertain environments from the aspect of real options. The traditional approaches to project valuation are based on discounted cash flows (DCF) analysis which provides measures like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). However, DCF-based approaches exhibit two major pitfalls....

This research determines the optimal investment timing using real options valuation to support decision-making for economic sustainability assessment. This paper illustrates an option pricing model using the Black-Scholes model applied to a case project to understand the model performance. Applicability of the project to the model requires two Monte Carlo simulations to satisfy a Markov process...